| T-Mac's Back?!? Authored by Craig Huffman - January 12, 2006 - 6:26 pm
No... not T-Mac is back. Nobody questions the production that T-Mac gives when he's in their lineup. Coming off his late-November back injury, McGrady averaged 27 PTS, 1.4 3PTM, 6.4 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.2 STL and 1.1 BLK. That's top-10 fantasy basketball material. The question most people are asking is: Will T-Mac be a reliable option down the stretch? The answer to that question is... no.
Houston's Wednesday night loss versus the Kings was the 10th game missed this season for McGrady - all because of his wonky back, which seemingly flares up whenever his fantasy owners start to believe that their 5th pick in the draft actually wasn't that bad.
So, what do you do if you own T-Mac on your fantasy squad? You don't bail on him now, that's for sure. His trade value has never been lower, and if you announce that he's on the tradeblock, you'll be swarmed with low-ball offers. This is the time to be patient with him. You should trust that he will return shortly (although the extent of his injury has yet to be realized), and you should trust that his stats will be there once he returns. After 10 games of a healthy T-Mac, producing at a top-10 level, most of T-Mac's trade value will return, and you'll be in a much better position to bargain.
Once that inevitable return occurs, don't get too comfortable basting in the sexiness of T-Mac's stats, though.
First and foremost, you have to consider that the likelihood of T-Mac's back flaring up again is strong. It has happened three times this season already, and the injury will linger.
For those in H2H leagues, you should also consider that Houston's H2H playoff schedule (the last three weeks of the NBA's regular season) is mediocre. They're getting 3|4|5 (games played), while other teams are getting as much as 4|4|6. That's not a huge drop in value for T-Mac (the Lakers are getting 3|3|4); however, there are 15 teams with better H2H playoff schedules than Houston. Consequently, T-Mac will be seeing less games, and his value to your team will be reduced because of it.
Lastly, don't ignore Houston's position in the standings. They are 12 and 22, second last in the Western Conference, and 5 games out of a playoff spot. They have Yao Ming expected to be out for another 2 weeks (or so), as he's recovering from toe surgery. Derek Anderson (calf), Bobby Sura (knee) and Stromile Swift (eye) aren't quite ready to return either. Add T-Mac's recent back injury to the mix, and Houston is left with Rafer Alston, David Wesley, Ryan Bowen, Juwan Howard and Dikembe Mutombo as starters. Needless to say, it will be hard for them to compete. So, how does this impact T-Mac's fantasy value? Let me, instead, propose a question to you... How much incentive does Houston have to play T-Mac (and his wonky back) late in the year if the team is playing for lottery balls? And, why would T-Mac want to risk further injury to his back when the playoffs are no longer a realistic goal?
So, my advice to T-Mac's owners: Wait until T-Mac comes back and he has a few healthy games under his belt... then hit the phones. Don't ask for much worse than a top-20 player (in a 1-for-1) or a top-35 and top-40 player (in a 1-for-2), though. If a deal doesn't materialize shortly, keep trying. You're bound to pique somebody's interest, and even if you don't, there's still a chance (albeit not a strong one) that you could have T-Mac playing down the stretch.
Likewise, if you're thinking of 'buying low' on T-Mac, now would be a good time (especially if that owner is struggling in the standings). Don't offer a lot - maybe a top-40 or top-50 player, and you too will want to strongly consider selling T-Mac once he gives you a few healthy games (and his trade value returns).
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Craig Huffman is the Executive Editor for RotoFreak.com. If you have questions or comments, please send them to: craig@rotofreak.com. |
